If
2013 is to be characterised by anything then perhaps the horsemeat scandal will
be its defining moment. Customers were
shocked to discover that their supermarket beef burgers contained anything up
to 100% horsemeat. Then it was
discovered that Findus brand lasagne neighed rather than moos and Tesco’s own
branded spaghetti was more bolog-neighs than anything else.
After
nearly a month in the news, Britain's horsemeat scandal shows no signs of
abating, with the Food Standards Agency now calling for a
"relentless" inquiry into how non-beef products ended up in
supermarket burgers and big-brand processed food. But are consumers starting to shun processed
meat products - and the supermarkets that sell them? Certainly there is a growing chorus of
politicians - from all sides - urging families to abandon supermarkets in
favour of independent family butchers. Former
Labour environment minister Ben Bradshaw has said he would not buy or eat
processed beef products, because the government cannot offer assurances about
what is in them.
"If
people want to be confident about the meat they're eating they should buy fresh
British meat, preferably local and from a trusted source," he said. And Tory MP George Eustice - a member of the
Environment, Food and Rural Affairs select committee - said: "There's
growing concern about the provenance of meat products. This latest scare over horsemeat is the latest
in a long line of similar problems.
"If
people want to know for sure where their beef or pork comes from, their best
bet is to support their local butcher, who will know where their meat is
sourced."
There
is some evidence - disputed by the supermarkets - that consumers are beginning
to change their shopping habits. Consultancy
firm Kantar polled 6,221 people on 11 February - the day Tesco confirmed some
of its spaghetti bolognaise products contained horsemeat. Their results suggested one third of
consumers were less likely to buy processed meat because of the horsemeat
scandal, with 13% saying they intended to buy more locally sourced meat, and 5%
intending to buy less meat altogether.
Independent
butchers are also reporting a boost in demand - particularly for processed meat
such as mince and burgers. The Q Guild -
which represents 110 of the "highest quality butchers in the UK" said
freshly made beef burger sales have increased by up to 30%. And Roger Kelsey - chief executive of the
13,000 member National Federation of Meat & Food Traders (NFMFT), said
there was "definite evidence" consumers were looking for alternative
supplies. He estimated his members had
enjoyed a 10-15% boost in their business since mid-January, with anything up to
a 50% increase in the demand for sausages, mince and burgers.
The
figures are challenged by the British Retail Consortium (BRC), which represents
UK supermarkets. BRC spokesman Richard
Dodd said: "Our retailers say they haven't seen any big changes in buying
patterns, although there has been more interest in burgers made of fresh meat,
rather than frozen." One of the
main reasons advanced for why supermarkets and big brands like Findus have
fallen victim to the horsemeat scandal is the length, and complexity, of their
supply chains.
Rising
beef prices and a public preference for cheap food were contributory factors
leading to the horsemeat scandal, food industry experts say. Beef and veal prices have risen by more than
45% across Europe over the past five years, according to the European
Commission, while the global auction price for beef has topped $5,300 (£3,500)
a tonne. Horsemeat, by contrast,
currently costs about $1,200 a tonne.
"It
is clear that rising beef prices and the relative cheapness of horsemeat have
led some people to see the potential for making big profits through
fraud," says Peter Hardwick, head of trade development at Eblex, the
English beef and sheep industry body. Mr
Hardwick believes the financial pressure on meat producers, who operate at
profit margins of 5% and below compared with double-digit margins for
retailers, may have also contributed to the problem. "There isn't cheap beef to be found
anywhere," he says. "But we still believe that ready meals can be made
as cheaply as they always have been."
Despite
soaring beef prices, ready meals containing beef mince have not risen in price
accordingly, even though the meat is their most expensive ingredient. For example, the average chilled ready meal
costs £2.31, up just 4% over the past three years, roughly in line with food
inflation, according to research from retail analyst Kantar Worldpanel.
Meanwhile,
our love affair with the ready meal continues apace. Almost nine out of 10 UK households now buy
them, despite a study published in the
British Medical Journal in December 2012 finding that not one of 100
meals tested fully complied with World Health Organisation nutritional
guidelines. The cheapness and
convenience of chilled ready meals in particular has led to sales growing
almost 10% per year over the past three years.
Frozen meals are a bit less popular, but spending on these has also
risen over the same period.
To
put this into context, we now spend £74bn a year on food, yet spending on food
and non-alcoholic drinks as a proportion of household expenditure has fallen
dramatically from 24% in 1963 to just 9% in 2012, according to the Office for
National Statistics.
How
can we explain this apparent paradox?
"Food
is cheaper in real terms than it has ever been," says Richard Dodd,
spokesman for the British Retail Consortium (BRC). "But it has become so affordable because
we've become much more efficient in agriculture, production and retailing. "Yes, we spend much less of our
disposable income on food these days, but this is related to rising incomes and
the increased affordability of food."
Intense
supermarket competition has educated the British shopper to expect cheap food,
says Richard Stevenson, technical manager of the National Federation of Meat
and Food Traders, the body representing most High Street butchers.
More
than 90% of British consumers still consider price an important factor when
shopping for food, according to Kantar Worldpanel, compared with 73% who take
health into consideration. Just 32% of
shoppers consider whether the product has been sourced through fair trade and
only 22% care whether or not it is organic.
Tesco,
Asda, Co-op, Morrisons, Lidl, Iceland and Aldi have all withdrawn burgers and
beef mince ready meals as a result of the scandal. Manufacturers such as Findus and Birds Eye
have taken similar steps.
Yet,
the Food Standards Agency says more than 99% of 3,634 tests carried on
processed minced beef products contained no horse DNA at or above the 1% level.
The 13 products that did, have already been withdrawn from sale. The BRC says that its member retailers have
completed more than 90% of their tests, and that out of 1,500 completed since
20 January, only six proved positive.
"I'm
encouraged by these updated results which confirm how few products have been
involved and that any that were have already been removed," says BRC director
general Helen Dickinson.
New
DNA testing regimes notwithstanding, the intense financial pressure on the meat
and food processing industries is expected to only increase while shoppers
continue to expect cheap, convenient processed foods made from raw ingredients
whose prices continue to rise in the global marketplace.